Economic expectations of German companies abroad
From the perspective of German companies at their international locations, the global economy will develop somewhat more dynamically overall in the coming twelve months than recently. In spring 2024, the around 4,300 companies surveyed by the AHKs worldwide are much more optimistic about economic development than in fall 2023. 31 percent of companies expect economic development at their locations to improve over the next twelve months (fall: 22 percent). In contrast, 19 percent expect the local economy to slow down (fall: 28 percent). Every second company expects stable development based on the current economic situation (fall: 50 percent). The resulting balance of better and worse assessments has thus risen from minus six points in the fall to currently twelve points and is therefore clearly back in positive territory. The balance is once again noticeably above the long-term average of two points (recorded since 2015). The companies' assessment of economic development at their international locations is more confident than it has been for two years.
The global economy has recently shown resilience. Global supply chains are functioning despite the persistently uncertain security situation in the Red Sea. In addition, inflation rates have fallen in many advanced economies, meaning that the first interest rate cuts are possible from the second half of the year. Private consumption may also develop positively as a result of lower inflation rates and higher wages. There are risks in particular that in flation rates could rise again, for example due to rising energy and commodity prices caused by geopolitical ten sions in the Middle East. The continuing weakness of the Chinese economy on the demand side also represents a damper for globally active companies.